European Sociological Review 5:275-297 1989
© 1989 Oxford University Press
research-article |
Recurrent unemployment—The West German experience: An exploratory analysis using count data models with panel data
Faculty of Sociology, University of Bielefeld Postfach 8640, 4800 Bielefeld 1 West Germany
This paper examines the individual distribution of recurrent unemployment using longitudinal data on unemployed men in West Germany between 1977 and 1982. Among the possible reasons for recurrent unemployment, this report discusses seasonal factors, labor market segmentation, unstable working careers among teenagers and state dependence. Besides that, various personal characteristics of the respondents as well as economic conditions of local labor markets are controlled for. A multivariate model based on count data and the Poisson distribution is used to test the relative importance of each factor. The final model shows that recurrent unemployment can be explained by segmentation indicators, state dependence, and one personal characteristic, vocational training. After these characteristics have been controlled, no other of the available variables significantly improves prediction. Notably, age and seasonal factors do not add any further insights. Also, health problems and long unemployment duration are not as good predictors for recurrent unemployment as they are for the classical target group of labor market policy, the hard-to-place unemployed.
Manuscript received: September 1, 1989.
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