European Sociological Review 4:223-231 1988
© 1988 Oxford University Press
research-article |
Swedish emigration to the United States reconsidered
Swedish Institute for Social Research, University of Stockholm S-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
Findings from research on the nineteenth-century emigration from Europe to the United States are not unanimous concerning the following three issues: (i) the relative importance of push and pull factors; (ii) whether job opportunities or wage rates were the relevant stimuli; and (iii) the lag structure in the relationship between economic changes and emigration. The paper specifically addresses these three issues by analysing Swedish emigration to the United States, 1861–1913. The method of Box and Jenkins is applied. It is argued that the influences of push and pull are contingent on a changing social and economic structure. This view is supported empirically by shifts in parameters; more specifically, the push effect decreases over time, while the pull effect increases. It is found that the estimated effects of wage rates on emigration are contaminated by the impact of demand for labour. After residualization, only the latter predictor has a significant effect. The lag structure is assessed by examining the cross-correlations between emigration and the various economic indicators. According to the results, the impact of the agricultural push was felt during a two-year period after a change, whereas the industrial push was realized within the same year. The pull factor had an instantaneous impact as well as a lagged effect of one year.
Manuscript received: January 1, 1988.
CiteULike 
Connotea 
Del.icio.us What's this?
This article has been cited by other articles:
|
|
 |
|
  L. Brannstrom and S.-A. Stenberg Does Social Assistance Recipiency Influence Unemployment?: Macro-level Findings from Sweden in a Period of Turbulence Acta Sociologica, December 1, 2007; 50(4): 347 - 362. [Abstract] [PDF]
|
|